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Argentina: Outlook darkens as Peronist chances grow

Argentine crisis
Argentina’s economic outlook has deteriorated notably since August’s LatinFocus edition. The primary elections on 11 August revealed that President Mauricio Macri is trailing in a very distant second place in the run-up to the October elections, shocking market analysts and sparking a huge and destabilizing capital flight in turn. The drastic change in political landscape and unfolding market turmoil has significantly affected the country’s outlook, particularly for next year. Now, GDP is…

Argentina’s economy lifting out of recession: activity rises in May for the first time in a year

Argentina’s economic activity rose for the first time in over a year in May, a rare boost for President Mauricio Macri as he looks to dig the South American country out of a crippling recession ahead of presidential elections later this year. The 2.6% rise versus the same month a year ago topped even the most optimistic estimates from analysts and broke a run of 12 consecutive months of falling economic activity. The monthly growth will come as welcome news for Macri, whose popularity has taken a pounding…

The Monroe Doctrine is not dead in Latin America

Monroe Doctrine
Democracy is at risk in Latin America. The danger goes well beyond Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela Donald trump’s administration is not famed for its adherence to highfalutin’ political principle, so John Bolton, the United States national security adviser, struck an unusual note when he claimed in a speech in Miami last month that the “Monroe doctrine is alive and well”. The reference to the 19th-century principle under which the United States arrogated to itself the right to police…

Don’t cry for Argentina. Cristina Fernández is not coming back – ever !!!

In most years, the barometer for Argentina’s economy is the price of its currency, the peso. This year, traders will follow the country’s presidential election opinion polls. In both cases, incumbent Mauricio Macri is losing.The peso has halved over the past year. Worse, his already-low support — one recent poll put it at about 36 per cent — could fall further given that former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner might run against him in October’s national elections.…

Argentina has gone from the fastest growing economy in the world to one of the slowest. What went wrong ?

Argentina has gone from the fastest growing economy in the world to one of the slowest. What went wrong ? WHEN the residents of Buenos Aires want to change the pesos they do not trust into the dollars they do, they go to a cueva, or “cave”, an office that acts as a front for a thriving illegal exchange market. In one cueva near Florida Street, a pedestrian thoroughfare in the centre of the city, piles of pesos from previous transactions lie on a table. A courier is getting ready to…
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