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Political Risk Analysis: What’s Next For Argentina?

On October 28, 2019 voters in Argentina elected Alberto Fernandez, a political ally of controversial former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, to replace Mauricio Macri, a business-friendly centrist, in the country’s executive office. The election marks a return to power for Argentina’s left and an uncertain path forward as the country still faces a number of long-term challenges. On December 10 Fernandez will take over as Argentina’s president. Foreign investors are still waiting to see the…

Latam Investor – Argentines Macri Miracle Ends in Default

When Mauricio Macri was elected in 2015 it seemed to herald a new era for Argentina. Now it looks like being more of the same. In August Buenos Aires announced that it would reprofile its debt. In effect it’s another default, with investors having to take a write down for having lent to the Argentine government for the fourth time in the last 30 years and the ninth time since independence from Spain. It’s a sad culmination to a presidency that began with such hope. When Macri came to power his early moves,…

Argentina’s economy lifting out of recession: activity rises in May for the first time in a year

Argentina’s economic activity rose for the first time in over a year in May, a rare boost for President Mauricio Macri as he looks to dig the South American country out of a crippling recession ahead of presidential elections later this year. The 2.6% rise versus the same month a year ago topped even the most optimistic estimates from analysts and broke a run of 12 consecutive months of falling economic activity. The monthly growth will come as welcome news for Macri, whose popularity has taken a pounding…

BlackRock bets on ‘cheap’ markets in Brazil and Argentina

When it comes to Latin America, BlackRock Inc. favours Brazilian and Argentine stocks “We see both markets and currencies trading at very cheap levels,” said Ed Kuczma, BlackRock’s portfolio manager, who oversees US$1.9 billion in the company’s Latin American equity funds. “The weakness we’re seeing right now creates long-term opportunities, as companies will take advantage of the weak growth to right-size their operating structure,” Kuczma said by phone. Brazil’s benchmark equity Ibovespa…

Argentina becomes a magnet for bargain hunters as assets collapse

Argentine assets have tumbled so far, so fast that a few stout-hearted investors say it might be time to buy. “Find me a high-yield sovereign country with an IMF program paying so generously,” said Jean-Dominique Butikofer, the Atlanta-based head of emerging-market fixed income at Voya Investment Management, which oversees about $205 billion. “We can agree on the growth outlook, inflation running unexpectedly out of control, the debt dynamic after currency depreciation and worrying technicals. But at…

Reasons For The Weakness Of The Argentine Economy

Argentina has been “printing money for the people” MMT-style for many years. Its wrongly-called “inclusive monetary policy” of the past – print money to finance massive government spending – has driven the country to massive inflation and depression. This is the main reason why a country with an excellent education, human capital, and high economic potential has third-world inflation rates. Argentina inflation rose to 54% annualized this week. Bonds spreads soared to 854 Bps, the two-year…

Argentina: A seemingly unending line of trucks in the ports due to a record harvest

It is proving to be a record harvest which should be around the 140 million tons of grains, a rise of 24% compared to the past agricultural cycle affected by a drought, and thus a barrage of trucks to the ports of the Rosario, which is the largest agro-industrial port and exporter of grains and by-products has begun. According to official estimates, these exports should contribute more than USD 25 billion to the economy. In addition, it is estimated that this increase in production will represent a positive…

Argentina: After the USD dollar rally, they expect up to USD 25 billion from this years harvest

This was estimated by the Ministry of Finance. Soybean exports will be the main foreign exchange generators for up to USD 17,200 million of this the 25 billion. In the midst of the strong rise of the USD dollar, the Government stressed that in the coming months they expect foreign exchange for up to 25 billion dollars. Soybean exports will be the main foreign exchange generators for up to USD 17,200 million. Corn exports would reach USD 4,874 million in 2019 (calendar year), with a conservative view, and thus…

Argentine will again be one of the worlds largest exporters of meat in 2019

According to a CREA report, shipments abroad could grow 16% during the next year. They should total 600,000 tons. 60% would go to Asia According to CREA, which presented its projections for 2019, Argentina would again be one of the top five meat exporting countries worldwide, given that it expects a similar growth to 2018 with a reasonable climatic year and continuing growth of exports. However, it was indicated in the report, “it is expected that the national reduction in the supply for domestic consumption,…

The world’s leading inflation expert believes the current Argentine monetary policy changes are very positive

The American John Taylor is making reference to the inflationary goals and forecast interest rates. Taylor highlighted the planned application of zero growth in the monetary base and “first level transparency” of the local monetary authority. For the creator of one of the most important monetary policy principles of the last decades, “an inflation goal is not enough, a policy strategy is needed to follow” when establishing and complying with the inflation targeting scheme. John Taylor…

Failing Argentine Economy: “It’s Troubling that No One is Proposing Reforms”

Mauricio Macri needs to undertake drastic economic reforms to save Argentina from a death spiral of inflation and currency collapse Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) confirmed an economic decline of 5.8% in the month of September. Monthly figures, although dismal and depressing, had at least been stabilizing: June saw a decline of 6.8%, July of 2.7% and August of 1.6%. September’s figures are just one further troubling sign for President Mauricio Macri and the Argentine people.…

Agri-business starts to lift the Argentine economy

SAN ANTONIO DE ARECO (ARGENTINA) (AFP) –  Federico Zerboni gazes out from his 4×4 as it rumbles across the pampas, fertile fields of rapeseed and soybean visible as far as the eye can see. An agri-business boom in Argentina, fueled largely by soybean and grain exports, has helped offset some of the pain of a bitter recession that forced President Mauricio Macri to call on the International Monetary Fund for a $56 USD billion bailout. Zerboni, 53, said his 6,000-hectare (14,800-acre) farm —…

AGRIBUSINESS REPORT ARGENTINA Q2-2018

Agribusiness Report Argentina Q2-2018 aims to summarize the principal activity in INVESTMENTS and M&A in Argentina for the second quarter of the year. Circulation is managed in a quarterly basis to develop relevant updated information. The investments section includes operations in Ag Finance like corporate bonds or stock offerings. The M&A section also presents a summary of the major transactions in the global scale. [pdf-embedder url=”https://www.gatewaytosouthamerica-newsblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/ENG-AGRIBUSINESS-REPORT-ARGENTINA-Q2-2018-by-Agrifex.pdf”…

Argentina’s worst drought in 50 years has crushed the country’s cash flow

The economic activity in April fell 0.9% annualised and 2.7% in March, but with a production drop of 30% in agriculture and livestock. It is thought the degree of the drop could reflect the beginning of a short-term recession. The worst drought in 50 years struck negatively with economic activity in April, which fell 0.9% year on year and 2.7% from March, seasonally adjusted, reported yesterday by the INDEC . The results of analysed data are conclusive. The agricultural sector showed a decline of 30.8% year…

Argentine economic activity grew by 4% in June as the economy recovers

The INDEC ( Argentina Statistic Department ) reported the Monthly Estimates of Economic Activity, which in June recorded the highest rate of expansion of the new Macri government era. Economic activity began to accelerate growing by 4% on a year-on-year basis, the highest monthly rate recorded to date under the management of President Mauricio Macri, driven by construction, general industry, and the financial sector, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses ( INDEC ). [gview file=”https://www.gatewaytosouthamerica-newsblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/ÍNDICE-GENERAL-DE-ACTIVIDAD-IGA-1.pdf”]…
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