Argentina economy needs Intensive Care to recover
Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri knew that he had inherited a sick economy when he took office in 2015 but failed to put in place the medicine. As a result, the country now has no choice but to face up to a period of painful structural adjustment. Imagine a man who has lived too extravagantly and eventually must go to the doctor for treatment of an acute disease, along with several other chronic conditions. The doctor prescribes a ten-day course of antibiotics, and advises his patient to start taking…
Panic Sweeps Argentine Pampas as Farmers’ Old Nemesis Returns – Peronism
All across the Pampas, in one wind-swept little farming town after another, a sense of dread has suddenly set in. Mauricio Macri, the man who championed the cause of the Argentine farmer, is almost certain to lose his re-election bid in October and will hand back the presidency to the leftist party that tormented the region for years. A primary vote held a few weeks ago made that clear. The concern is so severe that many here aren’t waiting for the actual election to confirm Macri’s defeat. They can’t,…
Argentina’s political leadership not facing up to the urgent economic realities
Argentina went to the polls on Sunday to choose the candidates in the presidential election to be held on October 27. However, there were no competing candidates as all the main parties only presented one option. President Mauricio Macri, who intends to run for a second term, was expecting to finish neck-and-neck with the Peronist opposition leader Alberto Fernández. He was not even close. Fernandez won the primary by a large margin (47 per cent to 32 per cent), enough to secure the presidency in October (45…
Things are looking up for President Macri chances of reelection in Argentina
The Kirchnerite ‘project,’ insofar as one exists, is almost entirely negative. Macri’s may be unappealing, but at least it is positive. It is still far too early for them to start uncorking the champagne bottles and inflating hundreds of yellow balloons, but Mauricio Macri and his teammates clearly think their chances of winning the fast approaching general elections are growing by the minute. Thanks largely to US president Donald Trump and the outgoing managing director of the International Monetary…
For the sixth consecutive month, the level of activity in the Argentine rural real estate market increased
Farmland sales and rentals increased by 18% in June, compared to May 2018 driven by the positive exchange rate stability and the rebound of the Governments popularity in recent surveys. The rural farm price index that measures the level of activity in the rural real estate market (Incair) grew again once again in June and accumulates six consecutive months of increases, reported the Argentine Chamber of Rural Real Estate (Cair). The indicator, which is based on the real estate operations carried out and surveys…
FIS Argentine outlook for 2019 plus other emerging markets
Frontier markets slumped in line with other non-dollar denominated markets in 2018; though outside of Argentina (which fell by -50%), frontier markets as a whole outperformed even the U.S. Never the less In mid-2019 Argentina will “graduate” back into the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) index. In 2018 Argentina fell victim to a stereotypical emerging market currency crisis, where high USD debt and rising rates caused a run on the currency that ultimately could only be stopped by ratcheting up interest rates…
Argentine Debt: the next government will face the maturity of USD 60 Billion
Whoever wins the elections in October 2019 will need to go to the debt market to refinance current loans that are maturing. Advisors estimate that they will need to renegotiate these maturities with the International Monetary Fund Referred by many to as the lost decade of the Kirchner inheritance, which the current Government of Cambiemos has had to work to disarm the poisoned chalice of a previously controlled exchange rate, widespread subsidies, hyperinflation and various obstacles to normal international…
Failing Argentine Economy: “It’s Troubling that No One is Proposing Reforms”
Mauricio Macri needs to undertake drastic economic reforms to save Argentina from a death spiral of inflation and currency collapse Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) confirmed an economic decline of 5.8% in the month of September. Monthly figures, although dismal and depressing, had at least been stabilizing: June saw a decline of 6.8%, July of 2.7% and August of 1.6%. September’s figures are just one further troubling sign for President Mauricio Macri and the Argentine people.…
Argentine Economic Outlook continues to Improve
Argentina Economic Outlook President Mauricio Macri’s government made important progress in his drive to liberalize the economy. The 2018 budget and a highly controversial tax and pension reform plan were approved by the congress in the final weeks of 2017. The pension and tax reform envisages lowering the government’s elevated public sector spending and making Argentina a more attractive investment destination. It should give a further impetus to the economy, which is on a solid recovery path, as confirmed…
