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What now for South America and Venezuela as the pink tide recedes?

While nearly two decades of ideologically driven economic mismanagement has turned Venezuela from a relatively wealthy oil state into a Zimbabwe-like basket case, Chile has mainly stayed the course, politically and economically, just to the right or left of the sensible centre. Wild swings avoided Since the restoration of democracy in the late-1980s, this long, thin ribbon of a country has largely avoided the wild boom-and-bust pendulum swings that have characterised much of the continent’s stop-start…

Argentine winter crops bring fresh dollars to a weak economy

In January, oilseed industry and grain exporters entered USD 1,756 million into the Argentine economy, versus USD 1,040 million in December 2018. Some analysts celebrate this fact saying that thanks to better harvests of wheat and barley, export companies are enhancing the income of dollars into the Argentine economy. According to the press release of the Oilseed Industry Chamber (CIARA), this increase of export dollars is related to the purchase of these two winter crops by the exporters. In fact, 8,4 MMT…

Excellent Rains in Argentina’s soybean belt give expectations of a bumper 2019 harvest

Unlike last year the rains has been good in key parts of the Pampas including northern Buenos Aires, and southern Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios provinces Rainstorms are sweeping Argentina’s soy belt, building soil moisture needed to guarantee good yields when crops blossom in February and providing some cushion for China to buy should its trade war with the United States continue to limit U.S. supplies. Bolstered by strong showers in key parts of the Pampas farm region, which meteorologists expect to…

Farms in Argentina continue to underpin the countries economic recovery with an expected USD 3 billion of sales before March 2019

This is the calculation for the remainder of the soybean and corn harvest, as well as the exports of the new seasons wheat. Despite some flooding, it shows the hope of a super harvest is now likely to be realised. The wheat harvest already over two million tonnes. Despite flooding from over 380 mm of rain in some regions from a storm last weekend, which will damage yields in some areas. It is a shared bet by the government and analysts estimate that the recovery of the overall economy will now be in the first…

Argentina: A Perfect Storm Creates A Buying Opportunity

2018 has been a tumultuous year for Argentina. From one of the most severe droughts the country has experienced in decades to the collapse of the peso and equity markets, to a $50 billion IMF bailout, a series of investor storms have hit Argentina and prompted investors to run for shelter. But while these economic setbacks have caused damage, they have also created a historic opportunity to cheaply buy into an economy which is about to get a significant second wind due to the economic policies of President…

Argentina has opened up a range of sectors: New Multi-layered investment options

image of Doing business in Argentina
HEADING UP Argentina’s reforms are pushing the economy in the right direction When Mauricio Macri came to power in late 2015 and promised to fix Argentina’s distorted economy it caught the world’s attention. In the LatAm INVESTOR Argentina Report published in Q2 2016, they described how closed sectors were being opened up for international investors. Two years later we’re back with an update. Macri’s first 100 days were a whirlwind of rapid changes, as he tackled the most perverse distortions in the…

Argentina Economy turns with the first trade surplus since December 2016

September’s trade balance improvement was driven by significant declines in imports of capital and consumer goods, as well as a more competitive peso currency Argentina had a trade surplus of US$ 314 million in September, official statistics agency Indec said on Tuesday, the first since December 2016 and an early sign the devaluation of the peso currency has benefited the country’s exporters.  Economists say September’s trade balance improvement was driven by significant declines in imports of capital…

Templeton Funds: “Argentina suffered a speculative attack but is now recovering”

The head of the largest investment fund in Argentina attributed the dollar crisis to misinformation in the financial markets. One of the biggest investors in Argentina said that the financial crisis is ending, and he blamed the chaos that hit the market this summer a “massive speculative attack” and the exaggerated reaction at a local level. The funds controlled by Michael Hasenstab, a major fund manager of Franklin Templeton, invested about 4.6 billion dollars in Argentine debt, betting that the…

Argentina’s huge wheat harvest should boost its struggling currency

Argentina’s plummeting currency ( AR Peso ) is set for buffering from bumper wheat crops as it becomes one of the few countries to emerge from a 2018 harvest with a sizeable yield. Several top producers from around the world, including Australia, the US, and much of Europe, have struggled to deliver high yields in the face of a difficult climate involving droughts and extraordinary heatwaves. This has caused Asian countries such as Indonesia, which ranks as one of the highest purchasers of wheat worldwide,…

Argentina’s Currency Collapse

Last Wednesday (29th August) the Argentine peso lost over 7% against the US dollar. Thursday it lost another 12.5%. It’s been cut in half over the past year. In dollar terms, the MSCI Argentina index is down 57% since it’s January top. But it’s still not a bargain, given the high inflation rate and political uncertainties. Back in June 2017 – partly due to investors being enamoured with the government but also as a symptom of the global bond bubble – Argentina even managed to issue a 100-year government…

Bumper wheat harvest should ignite Argentina economy

August 10, 2018
Uncategorized
A record wheat harvest expected in Argentina this year could arrive just in time to jumpstart the ailing South American economy in the fourth quarter, after growth has been hit by low investment, high inflation and a soy crop devastated by drought. Farmers are rushing to plant wheat in the moist conditions left by rainstorms that helped destroy Argentina’s recently-harvested soy bean crop. Months of dry weather gave way in April to three weeks of storms that helped cut the crop to about 35 million tonnes…

Latam Investor Q3 2018 Report

With 80% of the region’s population going to the polls in 2018, this year was always going to be seminal for Latin America. With elections in Chile, Mexico and Colombia already completed we can now see some outlines appearing on the political map of Latin America for the next few years. Meanwhile, with commodity prices from copper to oil moving upwards, the economic dynamic is also becoming clearer. In Chile and Colombia, right-wing candidates have come back to power. Both are lucky to win an election when…

Argentina’s Stock Market gives a vote of confidence in the economies future

The upgrade from a Frontier Economy to a Emerging one means funds that track the emerging markets index will now be able to invest in foreign-listed shares of Argentine companies. The Global X MSCI Argentina exchange-traded fund, which is composed of that index, was up 1.7% at $28.96 as of 5:20 p.m. local time (2020 GMT). But local stocks, as well as other Argentine assets, were benefiting from improved sentiment. Argentina’s country risk – a measure of the spread between its bond yields and those…

Argentina Wins Upgrade to Emerging Status after nine long years

Argentina won promotion to emerging-market status for the first time in almost a decade, rewarding President Mauricio Macri for his efforts to scrap capital controls and normalize the economy after taking over in 2015 following years of mismanagement. The decision by MSCI Inc., which dropped Argentina to frontier status in 2009, may set the stage for a 20 percent gain in the benchmark equity index, Morgan Stanley says, after a peso rout created one of the world’s worst-performing stock markets in dollar terms.…

💰 Should Investors worry about Argentina’s Dollar Crisis?

The late MIT economist Rüdiger Dornbusch used to tell his students in the 1980s that there are four kinds of countries: rich, poor, Japan, and Argentina. No one frets anymore about Japan buying its way to world domination. But the world is worrying again about Argentina. The country has just suffered another textbook attack on its currency. On April 24, the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds broke 3% for the first time since 2014. On the same day, investors began dumping Argentine pesos and seeking the security…