Farms in Argentina continue to underpin the countries economic recovery with an expected USD 3 billion of sales before March 2019
This is the calculation for the remainder of the soybean and corn harvest, as well as the exports of the new seasons wheat. Despite some flooding, it shows the hope of a super harvest is now likely to be realised. The wheat harvest already over two million tonnes.
Despite flooding from over 380 mm of rain in some regions from a storm last weekend, which will damage yields in some areas. It is a shared bet by the government and analysts estimate that the recovery of the overall economy will now be in the first part of 2019.
The agricultural campaign for 18/19 has lead to a strong recovery in farm exports after the punishment of the previous year’s drought, with estimates today that there is between USD 3 billion and USD 3.5 billion that will enter the country before March 2018.
It is estimated that on the farms there is a still almost 6 million tons of soybeans, valued at around USD 2.2 billion. Analysts consider it feasible that at least part of that stored volume will be exported uncrushed and even more if the US-China trade war remains unresolved.
Beijing cannot curb imports of the soya easily so it turned to Brazil in the past to get it. Thus last October, China took 96% of the exported Brazilian soybean. Although the soya sowing has accelerated and is expected to be available by the beginning of January, the soya available in Brazil this coming year is more limited, so the Chinese looks for the soya that remains in Argentina.
If that volume is exported unprocessed in the next quarter, they will contribute some USD 2.2 billion, in a theoretical calculation. “The unmarketed physical soybean stocks have had a very sharp fall compared to last year (21 million tons). Until March 2018, they are tentatively 5.9 million tonnes.
Starting in December, they will start with strength, the new wheat shipments. If for seasonal reasons and depending on the global panorama of wheat exports (with production declines in other countries) they will export between 5 million and 6 million of tons of cereal, indicated Joseph Frogone, from Cortina Beruatto. That volume represents about USD 1.1 billion.
Irazuegui agreed that between December and March, wheat exports “will grow considerably”. Meanwhile, the analyst at Zeni commented that the panorama for maize is different since exporters have practically purchased almost the entire export balance of the current harvest. For this reason, only 205,000 tonnes are expected to be shipped between December and February.
With the start of the new crop, since March 2018, sales abroad have accelerated, and for that month, shipments were at least 1 million tonnes of maize, valued at some USD 161 million.
Meanwhile, for the new soybean harvest, last Thursday, we already recorded exports of 3,630,000 tonnes for shipment from March onwards, which represent another USD 1.3 billion.
Reaffirming the numbers
The Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange kept its production estimates unchanged for the 18/19 campaign, which is expected to be at least 125 million tonnes, despite the recent flooding. This is because an important part of the cropping area (Córdoba) benefited by having less rain and now has adequate moisture to advance with the sowing of soybeans and maize.
The Buenos Aires entity indicated that the wheat harvest has already advanced over 16% of the area so more than 1.9 million tonnes has been harvested.
Meanwhile, the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario (BCR) raised attention to water excesses and the volume of wheat, while considering that for soybeans there will be areas needed to be replanted given the more than 200 millimeters fell in the core planting zone.
Source: La Cronista