BBVA Bank: Argentine’s President Milei is finally getting some traction on lowering inflation

INDEC’s ( Argentina Stats Department) monthly national inflation stood at 4.2% in May (276.4% y/y), the lowest in the last 29 months and much lower than expected (BBVA: 5.8% m/m, REM-BCRA: 5.2% m/m). Core inflation was the main downward surprise, reaching 3.7% m/m (277.3% y/y).

Key points

  • We revised our inflation forecast for December 2024 from 155% to 140% YoY.
  • Communication (8.2% m/m, 375.7% y/y) led the monthly increases, followed by Education (7.6% m/m, 222.6% y/y) and Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (6.7% m/m, 266.3% y/y).
  • An important factor that also explained the slowdown was regulated prices, which grew only 4.0% m/m (323.6% y/y) after increasing 19.2% m/m on average in the previous six months.

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