BBVA: Argentina Economic Outlook. December 2023

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Javier Milei will be Argentina’s new president. He takes office to correct strong imbalances in the fiscal, monetary and exchange rate fronts. Adjusting spending and changes in relative prices will lead to an acceleration of inflation and further contraction of GDP in the short term.

Key points

  • The alliance with a wing of “Juntos por el Cambio ” provides some moderation and greater governability to the new Government.
  • The first announcements confirmed a robust fiscal adjustment, greater deregulation and opening of the economy, which in the short term will cause a more significant drop in GDP than initially expected for 2024 (up to -4%).
  • We expect rapid progress towards the normalization of the foreign exchange market, with a liberalization of restrictions that would generate a depreciation of the peso to ARS/USD 800 by the end of 2023.


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